INITIAL EVALUATION OF THE RISKS OF CHILD WELFARE INVOLVEMENT FOR PREVENTIVE MEASURES

Suci Fajrina, Lufri Lufri, Sandra Evhan Nisa, Ayu Melisa Putri

Abstract


Untuk mencegah keterlibatan anak dalam sistem kesejahteraan dengan segera melibatkan keluarga ke intervensi preventif, penting untuk mengidentifikasi risiko keterlibatan ini di masyarakat umum sedini mungkin. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengidentifikasi faktor-faktor demografi, sosial ekonomi, dan riwayat kriminal yang terkait dengan keterlibatan anak dalam sistem kesejahteraan. Kami mengumpulkan data antropometri dari 120.641 anak berusia di bawah 15 tahun serta data dari orang tua mereka (81.453 ibu dan 68.202 ayah) melalui Badan Pusat Statistik. Keterlibatan anak dalam kesejahteraan mencakup perintah pengawasan, perwalian yang ditetapkan pengadilan, atau penempatan di luar rumah yang dimulai dalam satu tahun setelah penilaian faktor risiko. Validitas prediktif keterlibatan ini dinilai dengan menghitung nilai AUC untuk setiap faktor risiko. Kami mengembangkan algoritma prediktif berbasis pohon keputusan dan melakukan validasi dengan menggunakan sampel terpisah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa satu tahun setelah penilaian, keterlibatan anak dalam sistem kesejahteraan dapat diprediksi secara akurat dengan kombinasi faktor-faktor tertentu pada tingkat individu. Risiko ini meningkat secara signifikan dengan bertambahnya jumlah faktor risiko. Anak-anak yang memiliki empat atau lebih faktor risiko memiliki peluang sepuluh kali lipat untuk terlibat dalam sistem kesejahteraan anak, sementara enam atau lebih faktor risiko meningkatkan risiko ini hingga 21 kali lipat dibandingkan dengan anak-anak tanpa faktor risiko. Semakin banyak faktor risiko yang terakumulasi, model prediktif menunjukkan peningkatan kemungkinan keterlibatan dalam sistem kesejahteraan anak. Nilai AUC yang tinggi dalam model prediktif dan akumulasi faktor risiko ini dapat membantu praktisi memperkirakan kebutuhan untuk merujuk keluarga ke intervensi pencegahan secara tepat waktu


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DOI: https://doi.org/10.36987/jes.v11i2.6149

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Jurnal Eduscience (JES) by LPPM Universitas Labuhanbatu is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License (CC BY - NC - SA 4.0)